MAT 232 Principles of Statistical Inference Syllabus Summer 2002 INSTRUCTOR: George Markowsky TIME: Monday-Friday, 9:40-11:10 AM ROOM: 206 Neville Hall PREREQUISITES: MAT 111 or 2 years of high school algebra, and some basic computer experience. GOALS 1. To give you an appreciation for the statistical view of the world. 2. To show you the relevance of statistical reasoning to many real-world problems. 3. To improve your quantitative skills. 4. To help you develop some practical skills in working with statistical problems. 5. To help you develop skills in solving statistical problems on a computer. GRADING Your final average will be computed using the harmonic mean of your homework grade and your exam grade as described below. This method places equal emphasis on homework and exams. If you get a poor grade in either homework or exams it will lower your average. There will be two prelims and one final in this course, together with the homeworks indicated in the syllabus. 1. I will use +/- grading in the class. The grades will be assigned on the basis of your final class average based on the following ranges: A -- 90 or above C -- 70 to 72 A- -- 85 to 89 C- -- 65 to 69 B+ -- 83 or 84 D+ -- 63 or 64 B -- 80 to 82 D -- 60 to 62 B- -- 75 to 79 D- -- 55 to 59 C+ -- 73 or 74 E -- 54 or below 2. To encourage improvement, I will replace earlier test scores by later test scores if they are better. For example, if you get 50 on the first exam and 65 on the second, both scores will be counted as 65. If you then get 85 on the final, your average for the prelims and final will be 85. This means that poor test grades will not hurt you if you improve. 3. There will be a homework to go with every chapter. Late homework will be accepted only with permission. 4. The exam average is computed as follows: ADJ_PRE_1 ADJ_PRE_2 FINAL EXAM_AVG := --------- + --------- + ----- 4 4 2 where ADJ_PRE_1 and ADJ_PRE_2 are computed as follows: ADJ_PRE_1 := MAX(PRE_1,PRE_2,FINAL); ADJ_PRE_2 := MAX(PRE_2,FINAL); The final average is computed by FINAL_AVG := HARMONIC_MEAN(HW_AVG,EXAM_AVG); 5. All numbers are rounded and the letter grades are assigned according the scale mentioned in 1. THE HARMONIC MEAN APPROACH TO GRADING In this course, both the homework and exams are very important. The arithmetical mean that is often used to average course grades allows a good performance in one area to offset a poor performance in another. Since I want to emphasize good performance in both homework and exams, I will use the harmonic mean of your homework grade and your exam grade as your final average. H 100| 57| 62| 67| 71| 75| 79| 82| 86| 89| 92| 95| 97| 100| o 95| 56| 61| 66| 70| 74| 77| 81| 84| 87| 90| 92| 95| 97| m 90| 55| 60| 64| 68| 72| 75| 79| 82| 85| 87| 90| 92| 95| e 85| 54| 59| 63| 67| 70| 74| 77| 80| 82| 85| 87| 90| 92| w 80| 53| 58| 62| 65| 69| 72| 75| 77| 80| 82| 85| 87| 89| o 75| 52| 56| 60| 63| 67| 70| 72| 75| 77| 80| 82| 84| 86| r 70| 51| 55| 58| 62| 65| 67| 70| 72| 75| 77| 79| 81| 82| k 65| 50| 53| 57| 60| 62| 65| 67| 70| 72| 74| 75| 77| 79| 60| 48| 51| 55| 57| 60| 62| 65| 67| 69| 70| 72| 74| 75| A 55| 46| 50| 52| 55| 57| 60| 62| 63| 65| 67| 68| 70| 71| v 50| 44| 47| 50| 52| 55| 57| 58| 60| 62| 63| 64| 66| 67| g 45| 42| 45| 47| 50| 51| 53| 55| 56| 58| 59| 60| 61| 62| 40| 40| 42| 44| 46| 48| 50| 51| 52| 53| 54| 55| 56| 57| | 40| 45| 50| 55| 60| 65| 70| 75| 80| 85| 90| 95| 100| Exam Average The harmonic mean is very sensitive to extremes in performance. In other words, if your homework and exam grades are close to one another, their harmonic mean is essentially the same as the usual arithmetic mean. If they are far apart, the harmonic mean is pulled sharply down toward the lower grade. Thus, students who copy their homework from others cannot use the good grades they obtain in this manner to offset their poor exam grades. The following table gives you a sample of how the Harmonic Mean works. The exact formula for the harmonic mean is F = 2*E*H/(E+H) where E is the exam grade and H is the homework grade. Your final grade F will be computed by using this formula exactly and rounding off to the nearest whole number. ADDITIONAL NOTES 1. The dates of the two PRELIMS are given on the schedule. 2. Prelims are based on homeworks and lectures. Under the harmonic mean homework can count a great deal and I urge you to take it seriously. 3. Prelims are not tricky, so you must know the material thoroughly! You are expected to know the definitions of all important concepts and might be asked to write them down on the exams. 4. All prelims and finals are closed book and in class. Calculators may be used on the exams! 5. All prelims and finals are cumulative and cover all the material up to the time they are given so you must review material from the beginning of the course when preparing for these exams. 6. Partial credit will be given on exam problems. 7. I want people to work on the homework individually. You can talk to each other and give help, but this help should not take the form of letting other people copy your work. It is important that you understand how to do all the problems on your own. Otherwise you cannot do well on the exams. The harmonic mean grading scheme requires a good performance on both the homework and exams in order to get a good grade. 8. The homework grading will be strict since the goal is to make you more careful. Errors are the source of much mischief, so it is important to reduce them as much as possible. Even minor arithmetical mistakes will result in points being lost, so do your work carefully. 9. If you do not understand a problem get a clarification from me. Do not waste a lot of time working on something that you don't understand. 10. People caught cheating will suffer the full wrath of the instructor. Cheating includes such things as copying other students' homeworks. Cheating is bad for the class and bad for the individual. TEXT I will use Elementary Statistics using Excel by Mario F. Triola, Addison-Wesley, 2001. It should be available at the bookstore. OFFICE HOURS Office : 237 Neville Hall. Office Hours : Monday-Friday 9:00-9:40AM Phone : 581-3940 E-mail : markov@math.umaine.edu Occasionally, events force me to skip an office hour. When that happens, I will send out e-mail as far ahead of time as possible. If you are coming for office hours it is best to make sure that no unplanned event is keeping me away. You can check by calling the Computer Science Department (581-3941). If you have problems with this course and need help come in to see me immediately. Don't fool around until the end of the semester and then try to learn all the material in a week. GRADER I will have a homework grader for this course. If you have any questions about how your homework was graded, please write your comments on the homework and I will ask the grader to review your comments. If after the grader's review, you still have questions, I will review the situation. TUTORING You can obtain help with MAT 232 from several sources. First, you can ask questions in class. Second, you can come to office hours. Third, you can send me e-mail with questions. Fourth, you can will be able to make appointments with the teaching assistant for help. Fifth, you can ask for tutoring from the tutoring program. Sixth, you can get help from the Math Lab in 110 Neville Hall. Please check the hours there. DISABILITIES If you have a legitimate disability that is interfering with your performance in class, please speak to me about it. I will try to accommodate you as much as possible. Important Announcement In order to get homework 1 you need to use the web to connect to: http://www.cs.umaine.edu/~markov You will be asked to supply your name, e-mail address and a 9-digit ID number that will be used to post grades. Please DO NOT USE YOUR STUDENT ID NUMBER AS YOUR CLASS ID NUMBER! SYLLABUS The following schedule is approximate and subject to change, especially since this is the first time I am teaching it with this textbook. We might not get to all the topics listed below. We will definitely not cover all parts of all listed chapters in class. DATE TOPIC OR EVENT 6/10.....Introduction to the Course. 6/11.....Introduction to Statistics -- Chap. 1. 6/12.....Describing, Exploring and Comparing Data -- Chap. 2. 6/13.....Describing, Exploring and Comparing Data -- Chap. 2. 6/14.....Probability -- Chap. 3. 6/17.....Probability -- Chap. 3. 6/18.....Probability Distributions -- Chap. 4. 6/19.....Probability Distributions -- Chap. 4. 6/20.....Normal Probability Distributions -- Chap. 5. 6/21.....PRELIM 1. 6/24.....Review of Prelim 1. 6/25.....Normal Probability Distributions -- Chap. 5. 6/26.....Estimates and Sample Size -- Chap. 6. 6/27.....Estimates and Sample Size -- Chap. 6. 6/28.....Hypothesis Testing -- Chap. 7. 7/ 1.....Hypothesis Testing -- Chap. 7. 7/ 2.....Inference from Two Samples -- Chap. 8. 7/ 3.....Inference from Two Samples -- Chap. 8. 7/ 4.....Holiday -- No Class. 7/ 5.....PRELIM 2. 7/ 8.....Review of Prelim 2. 7/ 9.....Correlation and Regression -- Chap. 9. 7/10.....Correlation and Regression -- Chap. 9. 7/11.....Review of Course. 7/12.....FINAL EXAM. There will be a final in this course. It will be scheduled during the last class period.